APRIL 2011
Of 2012 programs in the making
It is about giving France its splendor back and drown with no mercy hoodlums, liars, dark princes and thieves. The sick man of Europe will obviously spring back easy peasy as campaign themes revealed, and confirmed via opinion polls, that unemployment ranks number one among the youth's concerns and others. The Left has already announced that 300 000 jobs will be created for the under 25, but unfortunately that leaves another 100 plus thou in the ditch. The Extreme right has promised to stick it to CAC 40 bosses who exploit the masses and drag down wages often below minimal pay. The Green have vowed for sustainable development, the end of nuclear energy and the natural jump-start of the lazy labor market. A brave new world in perspective. Since labor ministers last roughly 18 months on average, improvement of the labor market -- dole queues-- is unlikely to be resolved any time soon. Job centers for the majority totally ignore the exact number of unemployed per sector in need of manpower, per department, per major city, per region, or even in villages. Many statistics render a sad « na » for no available data on several given search fields. Forget thus about mixing and matching, let them sit instead tightly while neighboring countries keep climbing the OECD's best performers list. Unheard of in glossy magazines but definitely fantastic. How about trying ? And this time for real !
MARCH 2011
Of reiterations while people are dying
In typical UN-speak, it took over 12 days during which they « deplored », they « condemned », they « asked » they « expressed » extreme concern and worries prior to sanctions being taken against blood-thirsty repression in Libya, and, despite the short way between the UN's entrance door, the General Assembly, and the Security Council. Yours truly was there in the 80's, « UN accredited » press card around her neck, passed the metal detector doors, opened her bag, turned left, walked by Picasso's Guernica, up the elevator and into the Press gallery. Took a seat, peered at delegates raising their hands and others speak endlessly: extremely boring for a 20 something. Definitely stroke that, opened the UN Directory graciously handed by the Chief of Protocol upon our very first meeting, and went for exclusives.
And it was amazing what those (then) delegates could say, on the record, on a one to one basis. Besides, their (then) white-hand gloved Maître D. served delicious tea and coffee. So in this age of non-stop communication, Tweets, Ipods, instant web videos, where were the dissenting voices able to influence the turtle-motion Security Council ? It took the Commander in Chief's Executive Order dated February 25th, three days after Gaddafi's WWIII speech, for us to start exhaling. On February 26th the UN followed suit. Europa finally spoke on February 28. Let's all rejoice, pay respect to the dead and thank the devilish oil prices.
FEBRUARY 2011
Of a transition period and worldwide
It started in Tunisia and spread like wild fire to Egypt, Yemen, Morocco, Algeria and even Syria. The domino effect of too much restraint, too much control, and too much want has heralded demand for change fuelled by youth overwhelmingly sick and tired of the losing game of the few gerontocrats over the many. In one word, demography did it. For what do youth want when in numbers, two to three times that of western cultures, they witness progress, freedom, developments, and undergo daily hardship transmitted like a curse, ordered hands up against the wall, with no way out ? The camel's back, the brewing volcano now hold between their hands a geo-political crisis that elders must defuse to put hope in these nations back on their maps. With tangible measures, void of make-believe pow-wow, it is now their turn and in their own petroleum dollars interest to ensure that misery, ignominy and the like, once and for all « degage »
JANUARY 2011
Of the bulldozer year but without another roll-out
With austerity measures set on « Start » throughout Europa, no crystal ball this year will be required to figure out what to expect from now. Firms capacity to adapt to the global financial bedlam turned investment cycles nearly upside down. In the last three years, two major industrial investment criteria, demand and technological factors, have reigned, while decision-making based on financial resources or expected profit withered and died. Literally. With chaotic order books, minimalist capacity utilization, or shorter work week programs what is described by the EU as technological developments, availability of labor, red tape and labor aptitude towards new technology surpassed the old balance sheet signs. Progress, less dependent on bean counters than pre-crisis times four years ago, thus succeeded in keeping its rank and, despite banks tight lending criteria. And as innovations keep fuelling competition, it is now time for demand to jump start and last. Beware nonetheless of the brewing volcano heated up by discontent and a torrent of other justified wrath. Transfigured minds may well figure out how to throw that bulldozer out.
DECEMBER 2010
Of another bumpy year and still counting
The rocky sessions lived live in the past 12 months left little time to exhale as January opened up an abyss and left Haiti disaster stricken while Europe's own earthquake sent a record high 10 percent jobless into a hole. February took care of pressuring further the optimistic as tangible signs of an economic recovery were thrown aside by the Greek financial crisis while banks, rescued with tax payers' money, kept tightening up all sorts of credits. March saw an nth warning delivery over excessive deficits until the following month approval over Greece's bail-out. By May, austerity measures were announced while simultaneously, billions in rescue package started un-discontinued shooting at households and from all sides. June kept trading markets nearly aghast, and bonus-led work contracts officially turned less attractive from July. In August, and while Russia was on fire, north of the Loire Valley shivered equally to trading exchanges, but September put business back on the map with watchdogs and rules of future adequacy. October added austerity measures announcements left households numb and exhausted while November finished off the job with Ireland's debt crisis. And December ? Looks like plumbers are busy shopping while leaks are flowing....
NOVEMBER 2010
Of the indispensable but abominable pension reform
Planned, recommended, announced, analyzed, assessed, itemized, debated, massively contested yet finally passed by each the National Assembly and Parliament, the pension reform plan to raise the statutory retirement age to 62 (from the current 60) bears its shares of aberrations. As in breaking the eggs before they hatch such as empty coffers unlikely to be filled anytime soon: the lagging eyebrow-raising youth unemployment rate serious enough to have triggered a OECD report last year in May and in which, the labor market is described as an « unfavorable environment for youth in decades ». The ever shrinking employees' retirement contributions in direct link with the not-so far away « man cession ». Over 1.6 million interns underpaid and overworked, wasted talents monopolized to serve coffee and stare at the ceiling while waiting by the photocopier. An activity rate (according to Eurostat Q1 2010 figures) of 63.7% compared with 70.8% in Germany where the labor force aged 15 to 64 totals 41 357 million compared with France's 28 168 million. And so much more.
One (surely unintended) major mistake about the reform pension plan resides in its asset-management-GDP-Central-government-deficit strict approach. To the extent that workers who are the subject of physical hardship at work will have to demonstrate a 20% incapacity to benefit from retirement at 60. To expect any human being to work behind a jack hammer up to the age of 62 and by 2018 to 67 is inhuman. Bottom line is mix all ingredients, shake well, but do not bake.
SEPTEMBER 2010
Of fiscal tightening while business is on going
Contradictory statements in the middle of lazy summer days brought additional jitters to already nervous markets : prudent central banker-speak announced that recovery is in the making … but not quite as yet. Such news was based on reports derived from indicators published in May while a few days later were published …indicators for June : the mighty growth cycles. According to the OECD's August release, the Euro area's composite leading indicators (a combination of monthly industrial output and business cycles) point to expansion in the coming six months. Germany's remains « relatively robust », but France's and Italy's point to « below trend growth». Since then, additional monthly indicators were published and point to a pinch of salt : these two respective export order books indices rebounded in July and new orders in the manufacturing industry simply jumped up to September. In between, August will simply reflect the auto industry well known time for recess and its nearly empty assembly lines. On top of it all came news about central governments upcoming penance: spending cuts so as to clear the tables with embarrassing tabs. So where to look at next ? Out of BRIC countries, the OCDE's forecasts solely sees the sun rise in Brazil while India and China are projected to under perform. Russia is likely to be set for future slowdowns. Taking into account that investments swings are now engaging an upward trend, that temporary jobs are picking up at last, that demand for gold has remained strong and is projected to remain sustained for electronics worldwide, how about keeping an eye on the estimated number of months' production ? Definitely on the rise throughout the Union
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